The FT has published a blog piece with some
outrageous interesting speculation from analysts that Apple’s IOS devices could number 100 million in the next 18 months.
The piece looks at some of the Wall Street analysts, who seem to be wanting to outdo each other with who can up-chat the iPhone/iPad sales the most.
Most of the analysts seem to be using the iPhone 4 600,000 pre-order figures, and the iPad first months sales as a basis for their speculation, and then extrapolating them for the next 18 months. Katy Huberty of Morgan Stanley, takes these figures and predicts that Apple will hit 100 million IOS units by the end of 2011, which is “better than triple” the number of Apple iPhone subscribers at the end of last year.
Huberty also quotes a Morgan Stanley survey finding that “half the current crop of owners plan to upgrade, double the usual proportion” and “AT&T’s recent introduction of tiered pricing plans, which make the gadgets more affordable for non-power users.”
JP Morgan’s Mark Moskowitz, said on Wednesday that Apple could reach a sales rate of 40 million annual units this year. Which on top of the 40-50 million already in circulation should easily top 100 million by next year.
The FT seems to think that the speculation is over the top. But its all seems quite reasonable to us. We’d be surprised if they don’t hit the 100 million mark.
Apple are unique in the mobile world in that not only do they bring innovation to the mobile world, they also continue to bring innovation to their older devices at the same time, and to us that makes the Apple a desirable no-brainer device.
Anyone who buys an iPhone continues to benefit from upgrades to the operating system, and that brings new features – we can’t wait for the IOS upgrade for our 3G and 3GS phones and the multitasking we’ll be able to do – where as a buyer of an Android device is stuck with their old version of Android, and has to upgrade the phone to get any new functionality.
But as we always say, yes 100 million is a big number, and it’s an amazing number to hit in the short time that the iPhone/iPad has been on the market. But to be a really big player Apple are going to have to sell that many a quarter, before they can take Nokia’s crown.[ad name=”Google Text half banner advert “]