eBook sales to double to 30 million in 2011

eBook readers are set for big sales next year, with 100% growth expected.

The market for eBook readers has until now been largely restricted to the United States, and in the US it has been led by Amazon’s Kindle, Barnes & Noble’s Nook, and Sony’s Reader. But according to ABI Research, starting in 2013 eBook reader markets will start to expand globally. The firm forecasts that more than 30 million readers will ship during that year, almost double the 2012 total.

“Digitized content is the key,” says principal analyst Jeff Orr. “It has been in the United States that the most content has been translated to digital form. The companies that provide the devices also maintain tightly-integrated content stores that make access easy. In two or three years we will enter a period in which much more digital printed matter will become available in other countries and regions. Western Europe will be first, followed by Eastern Europe and Asia, especially China.”

While voracious North American eBook consumers may now own more than one reader so as to ensure a wide selection of content, the majority of readers made worldwide are in fact designed and manufactured in China (although they have not had much market impact beyond its borders.) China does face three barriers to eBook adoption: the lack of digital content, relatively lower levels of literacy, and device cost.

For market success, says Orr, an eBook reader must be priced at less than US$100 equivalent. Once these obstacles begin to be overcome, China has the potential to be a major eBook market in its own right.

Most eBook readers today are fairly similar in design and performance, and competition is fierce. This, along with the need to create an entirely new market, has been driving prices down sharply, reinforcing Orr’s argument that “The device brand isn’t as important as the content: success will increasingly depend on the strength of the relationship between reader and content provider. Non-US markets will be less driven by booksellers, and more by publishers and perhaps even network operators.”

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