We’re in readiness for Apple’s Q4 results and the pundits are getting their predictions in for what Apple will announce in two weeks time.
Horace Dediu at Asymco’s predictions are
- iPhone units:
12.213 million (65%77% growth) - Macs: 4 million (30% growth)
- iPads:
3.35 million - iPods:
9.49.7 million (-5% growth) - Music growth:
26.7%25% - Peripherals growth:
21%15% - Software growth: 8%
- Total sales:
$19.0$20.5 billion (56%69%y/y growth) - GM:
42.3%40.4% - EPS:
$4.78$5.00 (73%81% y/y growth)
The crossed-out figures in red were predictions from July that they’ve reevaluated.
Asymco say the limiting factors for the predictions are based on supply constraints rather than the market. Dediu says that the iPhone continues to be supply constrained – if you look at the Apple predictions for delivery on iPhone 4s they’re currently at 3 weeks – so we’d agree with that. iPad supply is nearly matching demand although it’s not yet rolled out in all markets.
There are also a few predictions for 2011 from Apple watcher Dennis Hildebrand Q4 10 numbers – Over the top who’s currently recuperating from major surgery (that’s dedication for you, get well soon Dennis).
His figures for Apple for Q4 are quite conservative compared to Asymco on iPhones due to the iPhone 4 antenna affair, but he’s as bullish as Asymco on everything else ;
- iPhones – 10,466,160
- iPads – – – – 5,227,200
- Macs – – – – 4,056,000
- iPods – – – – 9,750,000
- EPS – – – – 4.40 / share
- Revenue – 19.531 B
- Gross Margin – 41.20%
Dennis also interestingly predicts that Apple will do what they’ve done in the UK, and opened up the iPhone to all comers instead of the sole ATT deal they have at the moment. His estimated figures for 2011 reflect the opening up and are hence big. Dennis predicts, Apple will sell 33 million iPads in FY11. As he says “It’s first full fiscal year of iPad sales. Just to put that in perspective – Apple sold 11 million, then 20 million, and now 35 million in it’s 3rd full fiscal year of sales for the iPhone. Apple will sell 52 million iPhones in FY11, a 45% increase YOY.”
So what are your estimates for Q4?? We’ll all find out on October 18th, at 5 PM Eastern Standard Time.