Windows Phone to be the number two mobile OS by 2015

IDC Forecasts Worldwide smartphone market to grow by nearly 50% in 2011 and for Windows Phone to be the number 2 OS by 2015

Analysts IDC expect the worldwide smartphone market to grow 49.2% in 2011 as more consumers and enterprise users turn in their feature phones for smartphones with more advanced features.

IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, predicts that smartphone vendors will ship more than 450 million smartphones in 2011 compared to the 303.4 million units shipped in 2010. Moreover, the smartphone market will grow more than four times faster than the overall mobile phone market.

Kevin Restivo, senior research analyst at IDC said. “Last year’s high market growth was due in part to pent-up demand from a challenging 2009, when many buyers held off on mobile phone purchases. The expected market growth for 2011, while still notable, will taper off somewhat from what we saw in 2010.”

It also looks like the Android OS is going to get the most from the additional smartphone sales. “Android is poised to take over as the leading smartphone operating system in 2011 after racing into the number 2 position in 2010,” said Ramon Llamas, senior research analyst with IDC.

Nokia’s recent announcement to shift from Symbian to Windows Phone will have significant implications for the smartphone market going forward. “Up until the launch of Windows Phone 7 last year, Microsoft has steadily lost market share while other operating systems have brought forth new and appealing experiences,” added Llamas. “The new alliance brings together Nokia’s hardware capabilities and Windows Phone’s differentiated platform. We expect the first devices to launch in 2012. By 2015, IDC expects Windows Phone to be number 2 operating system worldwide behind Android.”

Worldwide Smartphone Operating System 2011 and 2015 Market Share and 2011-2015 CAGR (listed alphabetically)

Operating System

2011 Market Share 2015 Market Share 2011-2015 CAGR
Android 39.5% 45.4% 23.8%
BlackBerry 14.9% 13.7% 17.1%
iOS 15.7% 15.3% 18.8%
Symbian 20.9% 0.2% -65.0%
Windows Phone 7/Windows Mobile 5.5% 20.9% 67.1%
Others 3.5% 4.6% 28.0%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 19.6%

Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, March 29, 2011
 
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